Exploring the Origin of the Two-Week Predictability Limit: A Revisit of Lorenz's Predictability Studies in the 1960s
Original article: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15070837
Summary
This feature paper revisits the historical roots of the widely cited two-week predictability limit. It reviews Lorenz's studies and early general circulation model experiments, then argues that the two-week statement should be treated as a hypothesis rather than a universal ceiling. By separating growth-rate estimates, saturation-time estimates, and model-specific assumptions, the paper makes room for weather systems and prediction methods whose useful lead times may exceed two weeks.
